Property investor confidence returns with forecast of investment volume rise

With the return of property investor confidence, Asia Pacific real estate investment volumes forecast to hit US$165 billion in 2021

• Return of property investor confidence as the region leads the economic recovery across the world

Following a subdued 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, total real estate investment volumes (excluding development sites) in Asia Pacific are expected to bounce back in 2021 to approximately USD165 billion, which is about 90% of the 2019 level, according to Cushman & Wakefield.

This rebound in investment activity in the region is supported by greater property investor confidence as Asia Pacific leads the economic recovery across the world.

The region is also riding on the positive momentum off the back of a surge in investments in the last quarter of 2020. Real estate investors adopted a wait and see approach for the most part of 2020 as the pandemic swept across the world, resulting in a decrease of almost 29% in total investment volumes (excluding development sites) during the year globally as compared to the year before.

Being the first region to be impacted by the virus, the Asia Pacific investment market took a hit in the first half of 2020 but momentum picked up and property investor confidence with it in Q4 2020 with China and South Korea leading the region in terms of investment activity.

Global Investment Landscape

As with 2020, global economies, leasing markets and capital markets will march to the tune of the pandemic situation this year, resulting in a high level of synchronicity across these different drivers of the real estate market. In contrast to the prior global recession, investment activity is expected to lead the leasing markets in the rebound of the global property markets due to the strong financial conditions globally.

David Bitner, Head of Global Capital Markets Research, Cushman & Wakefield said, “Global capital markets have labored under a yoke of uncertainty over the last year. 2021 promises to lighten that weight progressively at which point low base rates, high capital availability for debt and equity and attractive valuations relative to other asset classes suggest a far more rapid recovery than in past downturns.”

While global transaction activity is expected to remain restrained in the first half of 2021, the growing consensus that a widely-distributed vaccine by mid-2021 in most developed countries and some emerging markets, and the upward revision in economic outlook for the year are set to boost the level of investment activity in the second half of the year.

Mr Paul Ho, chief mortgage officer at iCompareLoan, said: “despite Covid-19 challenges Singapore remains top investment destination for the long term and this should spur property investor confidence. The first half of 2021 may remain challenging but the longer-term property fundamentals in Singapore remains strong. As the region and the rest of the world recovers, we can expect the market to recover further as the economy gains steam and industries regain full momentum.”

Asia Pacific Investments

Across Asia Pacific, the region is expected to see increasing momentum in investment activity, though the pace of recovery will vary for different markets.

• Mainland China and Japan performed comparatively strongly during 2020, with relatively small declines in investment volumes last year. Combined with a strong Q4 2020 performance, they are likely to be the first to recover to pre-COVID-19 levels.
• South Korea had an impressive run in 2020, posting the highest annual investment volume since 2015. The robust investment activity in this market is expected to continue with overall volumes to be around the 2019 level with some upside potential.
• Singapore and Australia saw volume declines of 73% and 45% respectively in 2020, though 2019 was a particularly strong year for Singapore which exacerbates the size of the annual decline in 2020. However, both markets showed renewed activity levels towards the end of the year, suggesting a further uplift into 2021.
• While Hong Kong saw a similar uptick in H2 2020 and volumes are expected to lift in 2021, they are still likely to remain subdued in comparison to the 2015-19 average of USD21 billion.
• India saw a strong performance in 2020 and investment momentum is expected to be sustained as it attracts increasing attention from international investors.

From a property-type perspective, the following broad regional trends are expected to persist:

• Logistics will remain a key focus as e-commerce continues to flourish and supply chains evolve. The logistics and industrial sectors in Asia Pacific have a strong growth trajectory, also benefitting from its relatively lower cost base and growing working-age population.
• Data centres continue to offer tremendous growth potential, benefitting from the acceleration in cloud connectivity. Asia Pacific markets are expected to perform well as data center destinations given the rapid development of technology platforms and networks across many of its markets.
• Offices will still be a much sought-after investment asset, particularly those in prime locations. As companies calculate the impact of remote working on their office occupancy needs and begin to make longer-term commitments, the office market should see some increase in momentum in the second half of this year.
• Convenience/necessity retail and locally popular destination retail will remain resilient as they have proven during the pandemic so far. Experiential retail has been far more challenged due to pandemic restrictions, especially those retailers reliant on international travel and so are expected to take longer to recover.