November property data shows real estate market is stabilising

November property data showed after a significant correction in October developer sales have started to normalise

Data released by the Urban Redevelopment Authority of Singapore (URA) on Tuesday, 15 December, showed that 767 new private homes excluding Executive Condominiums (ECs) were sold in November, up by 18.9% month-on-month (MOM) from the 645 units that were shifted in October 2020.

November property data showed that on a year-on-year (YOY) basis, developers’ sales fell 34.2% from the 1,165 units (excl. ECs) transacted in November 2019, which saw six new launches.

This brings private home sales (excl. ECs) year-to-November 2020 to 8,791 units, 8.1% below the 9,566 units sold in the first 11 months last year.

November property data showed developers sold 48 ECs – which are a hybrid of public and private housing – 20% more than the 40 ECs sold in October, and 129% more than the 21 ECs sold in November 2019. This brings total developer sales (including ECs) in November 2020 to 815 units, up 19.0% MOM and down 31.3% YOY.

Commenting on the November property data, Tricia Song, Head of Research for Singapore at Colliers International, said: “After a significant correction in October, developer sales started to normalise in November, boosted by two attractive city fringe launches.”

Top 10 Selling Projects according to November property data (including EC)

Source: Colliers International, URA
* CCR: Core Central Region; RCR: Rest of Central Region; OCR: Outside Central Region 

Ms Song added: “The best-selling private residential projects in November were topped by the two very successful new launches – The Linq@Beauty World and The Landmark, which collectively sold 227 units, or 27.9% of the total (including ECs) sold.”

“The others in the top 10 were mostly earlier launches, with some laggards on buyers’ radar now that the earlier popular projects are now substantially sold. The Garden Residences rounded up the top three, moving 44 units at a median price of S$1,641 psf.

“Among the top 10, we note that Riviere, at the former Zouk site, has started to move more units (16 in November 2020) as median price has been cut to S$2,541 psf, from S$2,932 psf when it was launched in May 2019. It is now about 18% sold.”

2 New Launches this month as shown in November property data

Source: Colliers International, URA
* CCR: Core Central Region; RCR: Rest of Central Region; OCR: Outside Central Region 

“There were two new project launches in November – both in the city fringe – and both did very well due to their attractive price points and locational attributes.

“The Linq@Beauty World has sold 118 units at a median price of S$2,171psf, 98% of the 120 units launched. The near sold-out performance of The Linq@Beauty World, had been driven by its freehold status, and its proximity to the Beauty World MRT and the future Beauty World integrated hub.

“99-year leasehold The Landmark near the CBD consisting of 396 units, reportedly drew 1,200 visitors at its physical showflat during its preview and eventually sold 109 units or 91% of 120 units launched over November 28-29. The good sales at The Landmark could be due to the competitive price point of S$2,135 psf, compared to S$2,500 and S$2,700 psf median prices achieved recently for One Pearl Bank (99-year leasehold) and Sky Everton (freehold) respectively.”

Analysis by Colliers
“HDB upgraders continued to be side-lined in November, as only 46% of the total developer sales in November 2020 were priced at the median price of S$1,000-2,000 psf, compared to 72% in October 2020, showing a further decrease in proportion of HDB upgraders. 52% of the total developer sales in November 2020 were priced at the median price of S$2,000-3,000 psf, as city fringe projects dominated.

“In November, Outside Central Region (OCR) or the proxy for the mass market segment made up 30.8% of total sales (excl. ECs), compared to 45.7% in October 2020. The Rest of Central Region (RCR) or city fringe projects made up (excl. ECs) 58.3%, compared to 43.9% in October 2020. Core Central Region (CCR) or a proxy for the high-end segment remains stable at 11.0%, compared to 10.4% in October.

“Momentum in the high-end segment appeared to have been sustained. Leedon Green sold 18 units at a median price of S$2,603 psf, after moving nine units in October. The Avenir moved another six units at a median price of S$3,201 psf, after moving three units in October. The priciest unit on a per square foot price came from three units at Boulevard 88 at S$3,683-3,754 psf.”

Outlook as predicted by Colliers
“December will likely exceed November’s sales as Clavon has recorded surprisingly good sales. Clavon along Clementi Avenue 1 has reportedly sold 442 units or 70% of its total 640 units on its first day of launch on 12 December at an average price of S$1,640 psf, making it the top-selling project in its first-day launch in 2020.

“Other upcoming major projects in the pipeline include 660-unit KI Residences at Brookvale, 230-unit Perfect Ten at Bukit Timah Road and the mega 1,862-unit Normanton Park.

“We expect 2020 developer sales to end with 9,400 units, down about 5% from the 9,912 units in 2019. As the year has been surprisingly resilient, we do not expect a significant “rebound” next year. 2021 should still see slightly improved takeup, at about 10,000 units, assuming a better economic and employment outlook.

“Final estimates from URA showed that private residential property prices grew at an increasing rate, by 0.8% quarter-on-quarter (QOQ) in Q3 2020, after rising 0.3% in Q2.

“With the resilience of the sales and price index up 0.1% year to date at this point, we now expect prices could be flat in 2020. Prices could be up 5%, in line with the GDP growth next year.”