Price Movements of ECs

By PEARL LIM

In this article, I examine the price trends of executive condominiums (ECs). I trust after the active discussion about ECs in the recent months, this type of housing requires no further introduction from me.

Using caveats lodged with Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA), as of 24 May 2013, (please note that some buyers may not lodge caveats, thus the data analysed here is not an exhaustive list of all transactions), I examine

1. the launch price versus resale price of specific ECs project
2. the price change per square foot (psf) of a specific unit from developer’s sale till resale
3. the price change (psf) of a specific unit from resale till resale

Launch Price and Resale Price For Each Project

In Table 1, I present the median price per square foot ($ psf) at launch compared to resale for 40 EC developments. In addition, I compute the percentage change in the median price at launch compared to the resale price. Finally, I show the price range at launch and at resale.

Table 1: Launch Price vs. Resale Price of ECs

Project Name	Location	Year of Completion	Privatised?	Median Price at Launch* ($ psf)	Median Resale** Price ($ psf)	% Change	Price Range at Launch ($ psf)	Resale Price Range ($ psf)
Chestervale	Bukit Panjang	1999	Yes	434	529	21.89	314-473	341-429
Eastvale	Pasir Ris	1999	Yes	405	617	52.35	341-429	304-965
Pinevale	Tampines	1999	Yes	459	586	27.67	330-529	288-964
Simei Green Condominium	Tampines	1999	Yes	422	579	37.20	301-472	264-945
Westmere	Jurong East	1999	Yes	397	382	-3.78	370-443	292-935
Windermere	Choa Chu Kang	1999	Yes	451	569.5	26.27	329-498	272-707
Northoaks	Woodlands	2000	Yes	397	587	47.86	289-461	230-806
Summerdale	Jurong West	2000	Yes	372	590	58.60	284-451	234-808
The Floravale	Jurong West	2000	Yes	371	577	55.53	247-419	227-817
The Florida	Hougang	2000	Yes	436	624.5	43.23	351-521	301-843
The Rivervale	Sengkang	2000	Yes	449	638	42.09	287-556	278-829
Woodsvale	Woodlands	2000	Yes	380	566	48.95	290-424	238-749
Yew Mei Green	Choa Chu Kang	2000	Yes	429	589.5	37.41	308-844	280-787
Bishan Loft	Bishan	2003	No	418.5	916.5	119.00	379-491	394-1174
Lilydale	Yishun	2003	Yes	367.5	652.5	77.55	239-420	310-774
The Dew	Bukit Batok	2003	No	387.5	726.5	87.48	288-430	309-937
The Eden At Tampines	Tampines	2003	Yes	406	695	71.18	323-461	342-937
Nuovo	Ang Mo Kio	2004	No	402	759.5	88.93	307-512	396-1054
Park Green	Sengkang	2004	No	368	691	87.77	268-416	484-892
The Esparis	Pasir Ris	2005	No	386	658	70.47	316-403	390-815
Whitewater	Pasir Ris	2005	No	373	658	76.41	313-423	322-908
The Quintet	Choa Chu Kang	2006	No	378	709	87.57	242-410	420-904
La Casa	Woodlands	2008	No	393	778	97.96	340-534	458-906
1 Canberra	Yishun	Uncompleted	No	715			550-804
Arc At Tampines	Tampines	Uncompleted	No	737			554-875
Austville Residences	Sengkang	Uncompleted	No	715			585-779
Belysa	Pasir Ris	Uncompleted	No	696			496-780
Blossom Residences	Bukit Panjang	Uncompleted	No	704			536-785
Citylife@Tampines	Tampines	Uncompleted	No	811.5			499-925
Esparina Residences	Sengkang	Uncompleted	No	762			503-864
Heron Bay	Hougang	Uncompleted	No	740			612-809
Prive	Punggol	Uncompleted	No	697			502-779
Riverparc Residence	Punggol	Uncompleted	No	689			462-772
The Canopy	Yishun	Uncompleted	No	657			530-738
The Rainforest	Choa Chu Kang	Uncompleted	No	754.5			523-835
The Tampines Trilliant	Tampines	Uncompleted	No	803			551-888
The Topiary	Sengkang	Uncompleted	No	735			600-809
Twin Waterfalls	Punggol	Uncompleted	No	725.5			496-817
Waterbay	Punggol	Uncompleted	No	746			538-797
Watercolours	Pasir Ris	Uncompleted	No	733.5			581-802

 

Source: URA Realis
* The price data for launch is based on caveats with contract dates from Oct’ 1996 – 10 May 2013.
** The price data for resale is based on caveats with contract dates from July 2000- 9 May 2013.

Because of the minimum occupation period (MOP) of 5 years, for the uncompleted projects they are not eligible to be sold on the market yet.

Turning our attention to those which can be resold, we see that for all, except Westmere, the median change has been positive with the lowest gain at 21.89% for Chestervale. The winner is Bishan Loft with a more than 100% median price increase at 119%. 13 out of the 23 projects saw a median price jump of over 50%.

On a resale psf basis only 2 projects breached the $1000 mark, these are Bishan Loft and Nuovo. For the latter, so far, only 1 unit was sold at over $1000 psf, and the transaction was in the 2nd quarter of this year.

Launch Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit

Here, I track the same unit over time to see the change in price (psf) from the developer’s sale to when it is resold.

In Table 2, I present for each project the percentage of units which price (psf) at resale is less than its price at the developer’s sale. 13 projects actually have over 10% of resale transactions concluded at a loss, but only 3 projects (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) have over 50% of capital-losing transactions. For Eastvale, due to the small sample size of 7, the results could be erroneous.

The greatest capital-losing transaction is 44.4% for a unit at Chestervale. The honour of the greatest capital gain goes to Park Green where a unit was sold at 199.6% above its price (psf) at launch. Bishan Loft takes second place.

For the lowest 25% (25th percentile) of price change units at 13 developments register capital losses. This negative number falls to 3 (Eastvale, Simei Green Condominium and Westmere) at the 50th percentile. In fact 12 developments see over 50% of capital gain at this level.

In short, many owners make capital gains when reselling their ECs after buying from the developers.

Table 2: Change in Price (psf) (From Launch to Resale)

Project Name	Sample Size (No of Units)	% of Units Sold at a Loss	Lowest (%)	Highest (%)	25th Percentile (%)	Median (%)
Bishan Loft	49	0.0	1.8	179.7	90.2	108.1
Chestervale	101	34.7	-44.4	82.0	-26.7	21.6
Eastvale	7	57.1	-11.1	122.7	-8.5	-1.2
La Casa	24	4.2	75.5	138.1	96.5	102.9
Lilydale	102	2.0	-16.2	122.9	64.4	77.4
Northoaks	118	31.4	-27.7	101.9	-16.1	40.3
Nuovo	103	0.0	1.4	148.7	74.4	89.7
Park Green	110	0.0	46.7	199.6	68.3	81.9
Pinevale	84	41.7	-31.1	114.7	-22.6	27.0
Simei Green Condominium	223	53.8	-26.0	116.4	-15.5	-6.1
Summerdale	64	29.7	-32.0	111.5	-11.3	51.6
The Dew	38	0.0	1.3	141.3	78.0	88.4
The Eden At Tampines	98	2.0	-11.8	137.0	57.3	72.8
The Esparis	130	0.0	0.0	125.9	65.8	71.1
The Floravale	207	26.1	-26.2	113.8	-4.6	57.7
The Florida	132	30.3	-29.7	92.0	-18.3	42.7
The Quintet	123	0.0	48.8	140.4	82.4	89.3
The Rivervale	157	32.5	-29.4	92.2	-18.9	41.6
Westmere	15	66.7	-20.3	93.0	-12.9	-8.7
Whitewater	161	0.0	38.1	142.8	62.8	75.4
Windermere	96	32.3	-36.2	69.2	-26.1	25.7
Woodsvale	129	31.0	-30.3	93.6	-12.7	49.4
Yew Mei Green	226	41.6	-29.6	91.0	-17.6	34.2

Source: URA Realis

Resale Price (psf) and Resale Price (psf) For Each Unit

Finally I look at the price differential of a resale unit when it is sold again.

The data suggests that buyers can still make capital gain when they buy a resale unit and sell it again.

Indeed at 25th percentile all transactions make positive gains. At the 50th percentile,, like for the launch to resale transactions, 12 developments have over 50% price increase.

Table 3: Change in Price (From Resale to Resale)

Project Name	Sample Size* (No of Units)	% of Units Sold at a Loss	Lowest (%)	Highest (%)	25th Percentile (%)	Median (%)
Bishan Loft	10	0.0	18.9	127.2	22.9	40.7
Chestervale	12	0.0	19.8	125.9	47.5	77.7
Eastvale	33	0.0	0.6	120.3	75.5	97.1
La Casa	0	–	–	–	–	–
Lilydale	12	0.0	9.0	32.7	17.7	26.4
Northoaks	100	0.0	4.3	158.3	27.5	88.9
Nuovo	20	0.0	13.8	47.0	19.1	22.2
Park Green	20	0.0	17.1	44.3	21.2	26.4
Pinevale	12	0.0	12.5	100.6	16.0	28.0
Simei Green Condominium	101	1.0	-1.6	153.7	22.8	89.8
Summerdale	38	0.0	13.6	157.3	91.2	102.1
The Dew	0	–	–	–	–	–
The Eden At Tampines	10	0.0	23.8	34.7	24.4	26.8
The Esparis	26	0.0	11.4	71.5	17.4	22.2
The Floravale	75	1.3	-9.7	141.0	23.6	54.2
The Florida	47	4.3	-8.0	143.4	32.6	92.8
The Quintet	0	–	–	–	–	–
The Rivervale	36	5.6	-27.0	115.0	32.0	77.4
Westmere	16	0.0	3.0	157.2	106.5	114.7
Whitewater	42	0.0	11.6	47.3	16.8	27.2
Windermere	14	7.1	-4.5	116.2	18.2	85.4
Woodsvale	83	0.0	13.1	133.1	64.1	78.2
Yew Mei Green	49	2.0	-3.5	116.0	58.0	77.3

Source: URA Realis
*The units used here also include those same units that are resold again. For eg. Unit A is resold in Oct 2004 and then resold again in Jan 2006, so we consider this as 2 samples.

Conclusion

This article is done under time constraint and does not claim to be an expert’s analysis of the EC market, instead it hopes to contribute some small insights into the discussion about ECs. Any feedback and comments are welcome.

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